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It isn't working. They can throw all the euros -- and dollars -- they
want at the Greek financial situation. But the markets won't believe it.
The euro is heading straight down toward parity with the U.S. dollar.
That wouldn't be the end of the world, if the two reached
parity. Remember, when the euro launched in January 1999, it was priced
at parity with the U.S. dollar. And amid great skepticism over the
possibility that Europe could create a common trading community, with
common laws and currencies bound to each other, the euro quickly fell to
84 cents.
It wasn't until July 2008 that the euro traded at its highest
exchange rate -- over $1.57, before the current financial crisis began.
The euro slipped in the rush to the safety of the U.S. dollar in fall
2008. But as recently as last October, the euro was once again trading
above $1.48 -- as it appeared that Europe would weather the financial
crisis better than the United States.
Now that optimism has disappeared amid the reality that while
Germany and some other countries have taken a disciplined approach to
their economic situation, euro-partners Greece, Spain and Portugal are
unable to repay their debts, since they are tied to the euro, and cannot
print drachmas or pesetas to pay their bills.
We're getting a firsthand look at what happens when the world
loses faith in a government, and therefore in its currency. For most of
us, the idea of Germans pushing wheelbarrows full of currency is
historical hyperbole. But it really happened. And in my wallet, I carry
a 100 trillion-dollar note from the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, printed a
year ago. Today, it wouldn't buy a loaf of bread in that devastated
African country.
At the moment, the world is rushing out of euros and into
U.S. dollars. That's pushing yields on Treasury securities down to well
below 3.5 percent on 10-year Treasuries.
So with all this dollar-buying, is the U.S. dollar once again
the undisputed reserve currency of the world? Or is it simply the
current lesser of all evils? Your answer to this question will have a
significant impact on your investing, financial planning and retirement
plans.
I think it's only a matter of time before the rest of the
world turns to the United States and sees the same profligacy that it
has already reacted to in
Greece. Ultimately, the world will look at the huge budget deficits being run
up in a vain attempt to "stimulate" our economy into prosperty, and they
will come to the same conclusions: The currency is not worth the paper
it is printed on -- or the keystrokes that create the credits on the
books of the banks.
Then there will be only one reserve "currency" -- GOLD. We're
only at the beginning of the flight from some paper currencies -- and
into hard assets. Dollar selling has pushed gold up to record levels in
dollar terms. But euro-selling has pushed gold even higher against that
currency.
We're closer to the beginning of this move into gold than we
are to the end. After all, even Rumplestiltskin knew he couldn't spin
straw (or paper) into gold. But he kept trying!
Gold is forever.
And that's the Savage Truth.
Terry Savage is a registered investment adviser and is on the
board of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
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